You want a deep dive into a very fun under the radar team with pop potential while potentially being on the cusp of last all at the same time? You got it. Josh, I don’t know you well, but I’ve grown accustom to your team as I swam in baseball nerd land for a couple of hours looking at this squad. This 100% will be the longest of all of the PP’s due to Josh’ mix of youth and talent. He has uniqueness on his team that the casual fan wouldn’t know about. Look, I graded him out at 8th in hitting, 8th in pitching, and ultimately 8th overall. So, I don’t mean to tell you that the baseball-theology we are about to discuss changes those projections, but it will reveal some dynasty beauty from Josh.
Let’s start with a fun one. The Orix Buffalo’s star outfielder hit for a .327 average, 467 RBI, and 133 home runs in just 7 years in Japan. Masataka Yoshida. Yoshida is a household name in Japan and may one day be in the US. Shohei Ohtani has now made it some-what cool to be of Asian descent and be a pitcher in the big leagues (I.e Kodai Senga), but a position player always gets an unwarranted amount of skepticism when coming over to play in the US. Take Shogo Akiyama for example, he was the first Japanese player to EVER play for the Cincinnati Reds. The concerns ran-amuck always focused around catch-up to the speed of the game (pitching), the talent of the game, and the lack of power provided. Quite honestly every single concern came to fruition on the field for Akiyama. Can Masataka Yoshida be different? Well, sit back and buckle in, and listen to these mlb.com batting projections for Yoshi. They have projected Yoshida to have a .388 xOBP (expected on base percentage). If you don’t know what a good xOBP is well you do now. That projection lands him SECOND OVERALL in OBP just behind the OBP king in Juan Soto. His projects OPS (on base + slugging) you ask? Oh just a .867 xOPS good for top 10 in all of the league. Oh and batting average…hold on to your seatbelt. They have projected Yoshida to hot .298, second highest to Luis Arraez last years AL batting champion. I did not know they felt this type of way about Masataka Yoshida, but if I’m Josh I’m not complaining. Josh if you get yourself a player that nears any of those metrics you have struck gold. The Red Sox garnered some flack from the league at large due to how much they committed to Yoshi, 5 years $90 ($18 mil. AAV). It wasn’t all Yoshi’s fault, the Red Sox elected to skip out on resigning Boegarts and sent Jeter Downs off the 40-man to add Yoshida. Jeter Downs was a large part of the Mookie Betts trade so a lot was going on with the Yoshi signing. xOBP .388 / xOPS .867 / xBA .298 ……………….
The face of baseball in 2023? At least for gamers this is somewhat true. Jazz Chisholm will be the face of MLB the Show in 2023 and a hot commodity for Josh this season. Jazz has already garnered trade inquiry from multiple teams this off-season and is poised to make another large step this coming season. Injuries set Chisholm back last season but he looks to out all of that behind him in his ‘cover year.’ He only hits for a career .305 OBP but he has been a guy that provides speed and power. Jazz will be a player to watch with the new rules being implemented and how they help his running game. He has stolen 37 bags in his 205 big-league games and that should only increase this season. A wrinkle to his game this year will be making the transition to center field as he was vocal to Marlins GM, Kim Ng, over the off-season about making the translation from in field to outfield if the team needed. In the most Jazz way ever he also announced that he will win a Gold Glove in center, never lacking confidence. But I’m many ways Jazz needs to show consistency at the plate this season and on the field. A deep look into Jazz and his AB’s: Jazz is seeing less and less fastballs as his career goes on — from around 55% in 2020 to just about 50% in 2022. Jazz bangs fastballs. Of his 34 career homers, 22 of them came via the fastball. But interestingly enough, he has only EVER hit 2 home runs off of an “off speed” pitch. That distinction is basically speaking to the changeup and the splitter (fork, screw also involved). His xBA against an off-speed pitch last year was just .202 and his put away percentage was 28% on both the aforementioned off-speed pitch and the ‘breaking’ pitches (curveball, slider). He has to learn how to bang the off-speed and breaking balls to be a complete star hitter in this league. When he did play last year —- he average 4 FTP/g, so I guess he’s doing just fine.
Oneil Cruz is a star in the making. But he has to fix his chase rate and his strikeout rate in 2023. He’s a boom or bust hitter right now, and Josh needs him to be a power+average hitter. This is why his FTP/g last year was just 2.8. He’s much better than that and I would bank on him maturing in those areas over the next couple of years.
Strider the reliever. This is a cheat code for Josh as long as Spencer Strider can stay reliever eligible. I wonder if we aren’t in for a Fantrax rude awakening when some of these players lose position eligibility. Strider is obviously the greatest reliever of all time right now if that’s what he’s going to be. He’s a starter who may throw 150 innings this year at a Cy Young rate. Great reliever material. StRIDE it while you can.
Speaking of Cy Young…what about Cy Young runner-up Dylan Cease of the Chicago White Sox leading this rotation!? He’s a stud. And that will not change. His running mate, Michale Kopech, on the other hand has a lot to live up to. He’s got a lot of life on his ball but he has to hone in the skills to get guys out on a consistent basis. Kopech is a boom-bust candidate for me this year.
The Milwaukee CLOSERS unite. It will interesting to see what Devin Williams looks like with an entire season of work as the everyday closer in Milwaukee. He worked at a 4.3 FTP/g last year which is top tier closer material. Josh Hader, the old Brewers closer, worked at a 4.4 FTP/g last year and actually could improve on this number as he spiraled a little late. Josh has really good closers who will work as 2 of the top 5 closers in the game in my opinion.
Josh, you have a ton working for you as a dynasty club. This year may not be your year, but why not have all of the stars align and prove me wrong? If Yoshi is the projections, Chaz takes the step, Kopech becomes Cease, and Oneil Cruz adds patience you could seriously sneak up on a lot of teams. I say 8th overall, prove me wrong!