What is happening to the waiver wire this year?

It has been an early indicator that the dynasty format has changed how teams are managing rosters. From the long term injury guys to those who aren’t performing well but have potential future value, points are being missed everywhere. But, the waiver wire players have been less impactful than maybe ever.

Why?

In the short season so far, teams are scoring at a lesser pace than two seasons ago on average. This is likely due to the new “point of emphasis” from officials this year. Most notably, James Harden, is feeling the impact of the new play-on contact plays that used to result in two shots at the line. You may think that doesn’t impact waiver wire type players, but I think we are seeing a trickle down effect in the league. Less scoring by teams means less opportunities for this on the wire.

Examples of less scoring (CHA is the exception to the rule as they went from sub-100 totals to now league leading 121 ppg)

LAC: 2019: 115ppg / 2021: 105ppg (-10)

DAL: 19: 117ppg / 21: 102ppg (-15)

NO: 19: 115ppg / 21: 100ppg (-15)

HOU: 19: 117ppg / 21: 104 (-13)

BKN: 19: 111ppg / 102ppg (-9)

And the list goes on! Is this a trend or just early season struggles? Because some of those are due to roster construction but not all and they shouldn’t be that drastic.

Week 1

Hmmm

We had two teams (Auk & Luke) have shocking wins. A short week may have played a role in these two outcomes but they scored the 3rd (L:701.50) and 4th (A:673.50) most points in week 1. Ben Simmons absence (mental) was a key to Luke winning, but Auk’s team just flat out played better. Auk was even missing Kyrie (Vaccine) for the entirety of this one. But it didn’t matter because he had The Rubio with a side of Jalen Green. Will this be a trend or a one-off scenario?

My predictions came out 2-3

The Alec (573) v Brent (583.50) went literally went exactly how I predicted. Alec was the better team who lost due to roster management.

I was close…but wrong about the best matchup of the week (although Mark v Dal was good too). Colts (800.50) v Kyle (779.50) was insanity … Ja Morant looks primed for an unreal season scoring 113 in week 1 along with a great performance from LaMelo Ball (87). Sabonis (106.50) was Kyle’s best player and will likely finish top 5 on fantasy production barring any injuries. These two teams are 100% playoff bound.

Mark (766.50) v Dal (701) was close all week — Dal threw everything at the wall with 5 players now in the wire who performed for him throughout the week. Oddly enough, I think Harrison Barnes (90) & Miles Bridges (91) were the co-MIP’s of week 1 and they happened to both be on Mark’s squad. The question here is wether or not he can rely on that production moving forward. Mark will see Cade Cunningham’s debut here soon as well.

Week 2 Predictions

The Underdogs: Auk (46) 1-0 v Luke (47) 1-0

If Rubio can be week 1 of 2022-23 than it is a wrap… but it will likely be a close one. New addition DLo may be better in the long run but likely not a huge factor in week 2 which gives Luke an advantage. I will take Auk by 75 in this one.

Mitch (45) 0-1 v Brent (45) 1-0

Injuries will decide this one more than likely: B. Simmons, Zion, Embiid all listed at least GTD. I will take Brent by 100 in this one as his team showed depth in week one and I think Embiid will moss Tuesday nights matchup against NYK. Watch out for Saddiq Bey for Mitch’s squad as he had an incredible week 1.

Eric (26) 0-1 v Kyle (34) 1-0

I LIKE KYLE’S TEAM. I’m taking Kyle by 175. Eric’s team is dealing with a lot of small injuries (Rozier, Siakem, Powell, LeVert) that I think it’ll be to much to ask from the other players. Watch out for Sabonis, KAT, SGA to take the charge in week 2.

Dal (48) 0-1 v Colt (43) 1-0

GAME OF THE WEEK. Dallas by 55 in this one. I love Colts team but I don’t think his team does what they did in week 2. + Jerami Grant is going to miss some time.

Mark v Alec

The Astros made it to the World Series so congrats Mark!

Luke (26) v. Mitch (26)

Nothing to see here. Donovan Mitchell, Embiid, Gobert, DeRozan, (maybe) Ben Simmons, Edwards — will all run right through Trae Young and KAT.

Eric (20) v. Auk (27)

A little more to see here…but not much. Eric may have to close the games played gap (Auk +7) (likely only there because the app hasn’t registered all of his games next week) but other than that his talent is far superior. His team is stupid: Curry, Beal, Davis, George, Porzingis, Siakem. Caris LeVert, yes him, is also on his team but will miss all of week 1. Auk has Ingram, Capela, FVV, & MPJ but is ranked 9th in my preseason projections and I believe that will show heavily in week 1.

Colt (29) (worst team name in the league) v. Kyle (36)

This is where the matchups start to get fun! Colts had a really good (ballsy…) draft this year and is looking to show that in week 1. Kyle had a young guard-heavy draft that is deeep with talent. Guard matchup in this one:

Melo Ball v SGA

Booker v Jaylen Brown

LaVine v Fox

Both sides of this one are a little weaker at the center position (wood {K} & Holmes/Jackson jr. {C}) but still a ton of talent down low. I am going to take Kyle by 40 in this one but will likely be our 2nd closest matchup of the week. The next one, I believe, will be the closest.

Mark (28) (WELCOME) v Dal (25)

GAME TIME. This is a prime time matchup. I have both players finishing top 3 for the year (M2 / D3) and I believe the talent runs deep on both ends. Key matchups:

Luka v Harden

Jokic v Center by committee (Poeltle {sleeper center imo} & Nurkic —- clearly like Jokic more

Mark is going to get the best of LBJ in week one and won’t have to worry about him resting, BUT the turning point here could be Cade Cunningham. Cunningham (ankle) is questionable for the opener and coach Dewayne Casey said “We’re not going to rush Cade back,” so there is plenty to be concerned about. This is where we will see the dynasty format really impact week-to-week matchups because Mark will not want to drop Klay Thompson but will likely be missing some of Cunningham’s production. I am going to take Mark by 20-30 in this one but if Cade misses a game or two that will quickly swing it to Dals side.

Alec (23) v Brent (24)

I think Alec should win this matchup. But he won’t. Alec, like Kyle, is a college loyalist. Therefore Davion Mitchell (ranked 585) will have a roster spot on his team for zero reason. Dillon Brooks (missing 2-3 weeks) is also rostered. Outside of those mishaps his team is very solid: Ayton, Lillard, Collins, Gafford (don’t sleep). Brent is star heavy: Giannis, Westbrook, Zion (INJ). I think Alec has the better team and still may squeak out a win but I’m going with Brent because I know he will manage that team using all 7 acquisitions to get the W. Although, Zion and Murray injured will be a hard hurtle to get over next week.

The dynasty format really didn’t impact the draft until about 30 minutes in. The beginning was full of high value players like Luka ($89), Giannis ($80), and Jokic ($70).

Where the pace quickly shifted was when players like Eric and Mark got the absolute steals of the draft while players like Luke had already wasted his money.

Steals of the draft:

Siakem $3

CP3 $14

Kristaps $7

Dinwiddie $3

Booker $29

Brogdon $9

Middleton $18

Season Projections In Order:

Eric: 16-3

Mark: 15-4

Dallas: 13-6

Mitch: 12-7

Colt: 12-7

Kyle: 12-7

Alec: 9-10

Brent: 6-13

Auk: 4-15

Luke: 2-17

Best teams set-up for the future:

Kyle: Ja (22), Fox (23), Shai (23), Jaylen Brown (24, Sabonis (25)

Dallas: Luka (22), Jokic (26)

Teams not set up for the future:

Alec: KD (33), Dame (31), CP3 (36), Horford (35) {oldest team in the league}

Eric: Steph (33), Lowry (35), PG (31)

A huge question: how will players value draft picks?

A great draft pick would have landed you the likes of Cade Cunningham, Jalen Suggs, Zion, Tatum, Luka, Trae Young type players — but will the league value draft picks like that? Or will they say “that’s so far away that doesn’t matter?” That is yet to be seen!

To the dynasty and beyond

Player predictions:

Brent: KAT

Eric: Westbrook

Luke: Tatum

Alec: Embiid

Kyle: Giannis

Dallas: Luka

Mitch: Curry

Colt: LeBron

Mark: Dame

Auk: Mitchell